School has started making this an ideal time to look back at our local real estate market as we head into football season. The market remains competitive for buyers who are competing for the fewer homes available. Although the buying frenzy isn’t quite as frenetic as it once was, desirable homes still sell quickly – often over the asking price. Interest rates have increased again but appear to be stabilizing while other homeowners are enjoying their existing mortgages at much lower rates. The results are fewer homes available sometimes creating multiple offer situations. The following charts help illustrate the current trends in our market:
The Number of Homes For Sale remains low compared to Pre-Covid
Prices are at peak once again after a brief pause last year due to increasing interest rates
With fewer homes available, Showings Per Listing remains strong recovering somewhat from last year’s interest rate pause and stronger than Pre-COVID
With fall just around the corner and the peak summer season behind us, we can see that the number of homes for sales remains low while showings for those listings remains good but down from peak levels of Spring 2022 before interest rates rose.
So in summary, it appears that higher interest rates are continuing to dampen demand but seller supply seems to have dampened more resulting in rising prices. The peaks and valleys we’ve experienced since COVID appear to be settling down and we look forward to a more balanced, stable and sustainable market in the future.
And finally, a well presented, updated, and maintained home that is priced appropriately and enjoys a good location should still sell quickly and sometimes with multiple offers. Other homes may also sell quickly as long as they are reasonably priced.
With July data available and real estate market news constantly making headlines, it’s a good time to take a deeper dive into our local market. Overall we are seeing less buyer demand than earlier this year. But to put things in perspective, demand is still stronger than pre-COVID with showings per listing still very strong – just not the usually high levels we saw during Winter and early-Spring. As a result, the market is a little more balanced with homes having fewer showing but still selling quickly in most cases. Prices are holding steady and while inventory is increasing – it remains lower than pre-COVID levels.
The lower levels of buyer demand appear to be driven by a multitude of factors including higher interest rates, affordability, buyer fatigue, inflation, etc. For buyers looking to purchase, homes are coming on the market and the competition is a little less fierce.
For sellers, prices are steady and not running up as they were earlier this year. Interest rates can be an impediment for sellers as well as some will need to finance their next purchase. The main point for sellers is that the trend of ever-increasing pricing has paused.
Even with a slow down in demand, homes with preferred locations, that have been well maintained, and have desirable updates are still selling with multiple offers and often well over asking price.
The charts below help illustrate these trends from dropping buyer demand, supply that hasn’t fully recovered, to pricing at a plateau:
Homes for Sale Last 5 Years by School District
The number of homes for sale has increased from the the lows of early-Spring when buyers were out in force – but are still well below what is typical for this time of year.
New Listings Last 5 Years by School District
The number of new listings has shown the normal seasonal rise and fall but hasn’t fully recovered to pre-COVID levels.
Showings per Listing Last 5 Years
This is a chart that illustrates how much buyer demand is out there in the market. How many showings a home gets generally relates to how many offers are made and how high those offers are. This is perhaps the biggest change in our market this year with the number of showings per listing dropping significantly from the-all time peak of early Spring this year to more normal levels.
Average Days on Market Last 5 years
Days on Market remains very low as there are still not as many homes available for sale as pre-COVID. Even with reduced showings per listing from early this year, most homes are still selling quickly.
Median Price Per Square Foot Last 5 Years
After a dramatic run up on pricing earlier this year, pricing has somewhat plateaued as buyer demand dropped. Prices are still at all-time highs and there is enough buyer demand and limited inventory to keep supporting pricing so far.
It’s been a very busy real estate market this past winter as buyers and sellers aren’t waiting around for Spring’s warmer weather. With fewer new homes available for sale and plenty of buyers in the market, competition for homes is as high as ever. But as home prices, interest rates, and inflation continue to rise, it’s unclear if our local real estate market will continue to see the buying frenzy of last year.
To illustrate the activity in the market, the following charts will reinforce what you’ve heard in the news and from your friends, family, and neighbors.
The first chart shows the number of homes for sale by School district over the last 5 years. The winter months are usually lower but the past 3 months have been significantly lower with far fewer homes for sale. Home for sale have been selling quickly so the historically small number of homes for sale is no surprise.
With so few listings available to see, the number of showings per listing shows how much demand there is for homes. The number of showings per listing is as high as it was last Spring so there are plenty of buyers out shopping. But with prices already high, there may be fewer buyers that can actually pay the higher prices and/or make as strong an offer.
Below you can see the number of new listings is down but not dramatically. There are fewer new listings during the winter months so we will see what the Spring has to bring. Each year, the spring months have seen a spike in new listings and we hope that happens again this year.
Finally, the value of homes over the past 5 years has been climbing – especially in 2021. We aren’t sure what 2022 will bring yet but the lack of homes available to purchase will probably continue.
So if you are planning to sell your home, now would be the time to do it as long as you have a plan for where you will move to. If you are planning to buy a home, we recommend getting yourself prepared financially first. Then we can help you see as many homes as possible so you can learn about the market. And then we can help you find the right home and prepare a strong offer.
Looking back at 2021, we saw our local real estate market rise dramatically during the Spring as already strong buyer demand continued to strengthen while the the supply of homes for sale remained limited. The rise in home prices was making headlines across the country as buyers competed to buy whatever homes became available. Bidding wars ensued with Buyers resorting to extreme tactics in order to win including all-cash offers, waived inspections, free occupancy, and more. Our local market was no exception as prices rose but prices have been rising steadily since 2009.
The charts below illustrate 10 years of data for Plymouth and Northville and help put the changes of 2021 in some perspective. See the comments below each chart:
Prices have steadily risen in our market since 2009 and 2021 was no exception. After a plateau in early 2020 with the lockdown, prices have recovered and the upward trend we have seen since 2009 continues. This is a more dramatic chart that shows buyer interest in the market. The number of showings per listing dropped to near-zero during the lockdown of Spring 2020 and then returning to ‘normal’ level later in 2020. But it wasn’t until 2021 that we saw the number of showings per listing spike upward as buyer traffic grew quickly. As 2021 came to end, the number of showings per listing remains very high indicating that we still have a seller’s market.Days on Market remains low as expected given the imbalance of more buyers and fewer sellers in the marketThe number of new listings has steadily declined as supply remains very constrained making it difficult of the buyers. Home sellers are often faced with the challenge of finding another home before they can sell which makes the decision to sell that much more difficult.
With July data now available, this is a good opportunity to look back and analyze current real estate market trends. 2021 has been a real estate market unlike any other with stories on the news and from your neighbors about bidding wars and buyer frustration. Business has been frantic at times. This past Spring was especially busy with a staggering increase in buyer demand without a corresponding increase in the supply of available homes for sale. This imbalance has just begun to equalize itself due in part to the seasonality of real estate as we reach the end of the summer but also because buyers may be postponing purchasing or have given up altogether – at least for the time being.
Here are some charts to help illustrate what we are seeing in our local market: from the lack of activity during the stay at home order, to the gradual return of the market albeit delayed in 2020, to the dramatic increase in demand in early 2021 and finally, to a slight cooling but still hot market we have now. It’s also important to keep in mind any “year-over-year” comparisons to 2020 should be scrutinized carefully since you can’t really compare this year’s Spring market to last years to due to the effect of stay at home order we had.
Median Days on Market Last 5 Years
Days on Market remains at a low when you look at the past 5 years. The market has been good here for the last 11 years so good homes priced well had been selling quickly even before Covid. You can see the spike during last year’s stay at home order. You can also see the seasonal spike at the end of each year when real estate activity slows down.
Shows Per Listing Last 5 Years
This chart is perhaps the most telling of all. After peaking in March and April of this year, Showings per Listing have started to slow inline with seasonal norms but remain high relative to previous years. This shows just how competitive the seller’s market was and continues to be. There is usually a peak in the Spring months but nothing like what we saw in 2021 which was approximately 2 times the number of showings per listing. The number of showings per listing still remains higher than usual. Finally, note the dip during last 2020 stay at home order.
Number of New Listings Last 5 years
This chart illustrates that it’s not just increased demand that has driven the market – but also a lack of supply. New listings this year have been comparable or slightly less than previous years. People always need to sell for various reasons and recent prices have certainly enticed some to sell. But if you want sell high and need to buy at the same time, the benefits of selling just to time the market may be limited. Overall, there are homes for sale as there have always been – except there are more buyers competing for them.
Pending Sales Last 5 Years
Showing typical seasonal changes, Pending Sales were very strong in the Spring but are seeing the usually seasonal decline now while still higher than past years. If you look at 2020, there is a peak in the summer that was mostly driven by a backlog of sales caused by the stay at home order in the Spring of 2020. Sales that year were pushed back and concentrated later in the year.
Median Sale Price Last 5 year with 12 Month Rolling Average
This trend for Sales Price remains steadily upwards with 2021 seeing the trend accelerate. Overall, prices were already moving up steadily since back to 2009 but we did see 10-20% increases over just the past couple of years.
In summary, our local market remains strong given how desirable a place it is to live. New construction is adding to the stock of homes but there is less and less space for large developments. Material and labor costs and shortages will also limit how much stock can be added locally.
Here are 3 charts to help illustrate what we are seeing in the market this Spring relative to the last 10 years.
The number of new listings is lower but not significantly. Each week, there are new listings throughout our region and there are more coming. The ‘sellers market’ may be tempting more people to list. But we typically see selling activity increase in the Spring and into the Summer each year.
But the main issue has been the number of buyers for each of these new listings. When you look at the number of showings per listing below, these figures are up dramatically. For each new listing, there are many more showings than we have seen since the recession. The number of showings per listing was actually declining for the last few years but started to drastically change last summer resulting in the chart below:
With such an increase in showing and buying activity with essentially the same or fewer new listings available, the inventory of homes for sale is at a 10 year low currently. We do expect more new listings to keep coming up as the weather improves and the school year ends. But the market will take some time to absorb all the buyers that are currently looking.
April data is now available and it reinforces what we’ve seen so far in 2021 during our daily real estate activities. There continues to be very strong buying demand without a balancing level of selling – creating quite an uneven market. Across Plymouth, Northville and Novi, homes are selling quickly – often with numerous showings and multiple offers. There are of course exceptions – generally more unique homes or highly priced homes can take a little longer.
Prices are up accordingly and will likely continue to increase as a large number of pending sales have yet to close. Many of these pending sales are at or above the listing price which will likely raise comparables and help mitigate appraisals holding back values in some cases.
If you are a buyer, it can be a challenging time but with the right advice, patience, and perserverence, you can and will succeed. If you are a seller, it’s definitely a great time to sell but consider the cost of where you are moving to as well.
These are tumultuous times so your home has never been more important.
The first set of charts below illustrate number of active listings and average price over 5 years for Plymouth, Northville and Novi individually and collectively. The second set shows average price over 10 years for the same areas. The message is simple and consistent: prices are increasing while the number of available homes remains limited.
Plymouth-Canton, Northville, Novi School Districts: Number of Active Listings and Average Price Last 5 Years
Plymouth Township: Number of Active Listings and Average Price Last 5 Years
Cityof Plymouth: Number of Active Listings and Average Price Last 5 Years
City of Northville: Number of Active Listings and Average Price Last 5 Years
Northville Township: Number of Active Listings and Average Price Last 5 Years
Novi: Number of Active Listings and Average Price Last 5 Years
2020 Plymouth and Northville Median Sales Price Increased 5% over 2019
2020 was a year like no other for many businesses including Real Estate. In March of last year, we were essentially put on hold during the Stay at Home order. There were still virtual showings, purchases, and closings but volume was down significantly. By May, the market was slowing reopening and people cautiously began listing and looking. Gradually, the market gained momentum as buying activity grew while supply remained limited. People aligned their real estate needs with working and learning from home. This usually meant larger homes with more amenities but also more outdoor space too. With travel, dining and entertainment expenses dramatically lower, people allocated budget to home purchase, renovation, and decoration. The result is a market with steadily increasing prices, growing demand and lack of choice. The charts and data below from last year and into this year, clearly illustrate many of these trends.
In terms of 2021, it’s impossible to predict what will happen but we do know that Plymouth and Northville remain very desirable places to call your home and your home has never been more important! And with the Superbowl behind us, people usually start to turn their attention to getting their home ready to sell or start preparing to buy their next home. We look forward to 2021!
Plymouth and Northville Months of Inventory– Last 5 Years by Month
Inventory Continues to be Low – It’s about half of what it was last year at this time!
Plymouth and Northville Number of Active Listings – Last 2 Years by Month
January Number of Active Listings is just more than half of what it was last January
Plymouth and Northville Number of Pending Sales – Last 2 Years by Month
The number of Pending Sales has settled down after many months of being higher than last year. Fewer available homes will mean fewer pending sales.
Plymouth and Northville Number of Sales – Last 2 Years by Month
The Number of Sales has remained fairly steady January year over year. This chart illustrates the effect of the Stay at Home order during April and May of last year and then the rebound that started in the summer.
Plymouth and Northville Number of New Listings – Last 2 Years by Month
There were of new Listings in January dropped 45% Year over Year. January is yypically a slower month for new Listings but this year is significantly lower than normal.
The data above is based on Realcomp residential and condo sales for Plymouth and Northville, Cities and Townships,.
The 2020 Real Estate market will surely be one to remember. And with the end of summer nearly here and August data in, it’s a good time to look back and see what has happened so far.
The local real estate industry emerged gradually during the month of May from the stay at home order. In-person showings resumed (albeit with restrictions), listings began appearing steadily, and pending home sales increased.
The recovery accelerated into June as pent-up buyer demand, pent-up listing supply, and low interest rates drove increasing activity in the market. People were resuming their real estate goals after a pause. Competitive bidding situations for desirable homes in desirable locations weren’t uncommon and buyers had to act quickly when they found a house they liked. This higher level of activity has continued through July and August and into September. The annual seasonal market cycle seems to be approximately 2 months delayed so we expect this higher level of activity to last into the fall.
With fewer new listings and plenty of buying activity, median home prices have naturally increased slightly. The resiliency of our local real estate market reinforces what we all know, that Plymouth and Northville have been and remain very desirable places to live. This combined with changing buyer needs (working/learning from home, more people at home) have driven the want for larger homes, more yard space, and features and amenities like home offices, home study areas, pools, and finished basements.
Although we weren’t sure what would happen coming out of the stay at home order, we are pleased to see a strong recovery and look forward to continued strength in our local market.
Below are some charts to help illustrate the above comments. The data covers all Plymouth and Northville (incl. Oakland County Northville), homes and condos (incl. new construction), sales (not leases) and is broken out by month. The orange arrow shows the August year over year difference.
The Number Of Pending Home Sales has remained High All Summer:
The Number of Home Sales has Receded to More Normal Levels but remains higher year over year in August:
Median Sales Price has also Increased and has Continued to Increase Over the Summer:
The Number of New Listings Actually Decreased Year over Year:
With Fewer New Listings and More Pending Sales, the Number of Active Listings is Significantly Lower Year over Year:
The real estate industry in Plymouth/Northville did some catching up during the month of June as pending home sales increased 35% year over year. Pent-up buying AND pent-up listing drove the market as buyer and sellers returned to the market. While the number of closed sales is still lagging, July should reflect the peak of pending sales in June. Prices remain steady as demand continues to be strong and with more listing coming online.
Number of Pending Sales increased 35% in June Year over YearNumber of Sales showing the effects of COVID-19 but recovering. June is usually a peak month.Average Sales price is flat overall in 2020 but there will be more data after July closings.Median Sales price is flat overall in 2020 but there will be more data after July closings.The number of new listings has returned to near normal levels.The number of active listings is down in June year over year as pent-up buying returned quickly but pent-up listing has lagged somewhat.
Our family at BAKE Real Estate sends well wishes to those around the world who are affected directly or indirectly by the COVID-19 virus. For those of you following us from afar, we are in a “Stay Home/Stay Safe” mode here in Michigan, as in some other States and other countries. Therefore, we will be working exclusively from home until at least April 14th. Our six full time agents, including me, Patrick, Stephanie, Ann, Sorra and Christine, as well as our unofficial Canine Comfort Agents, Toddy and Biskit, are available by text, phone or video conference for real estate advice. Thank you to all of you who are out doing essential services to keep our citizens alive and well. We appreciate everyone working together on this to flatten the curve.
The Northville Art House is a community art center in downtown Northville opened in 2005 which offers exhibits, classes and an artisan store. The Northville Art House currently offers in-house programs for adults, children, teens, and special need groups, such as Painting with Parkinson’s. It also offers out-reach programs for kids in Kindergarten through Fifth Grade in the Northville Public Schools and have started working with the special education program at Cooke School.
One of the signature fundraisers is coming up on Saturday, February 8. If you are looking for a wonderful way to spend an enjoyable evening and also support a community gem, consider attending Art Crushon Saturday, February 8 from 6:30 to 10:00 p.m. at the Northville Hills Golf Club. Tickets are $85 per person and includes dinner, open bar, a silent auction, entertainment by the Keynote Sisters and Live Painting by artist, Jennifer Helner. In addition, you will be helping what the media has called a “funky little house in downtown Northville”. Please see the attached flyer for more information or go to https://northvillearthouse.org/artcrush/
ArtCrush promises to be an exciting evening featuring a sit-down dinner with “A Taste of Italy” flare, open bar, artist workshop, live painting, silent auction, and entertainment by Keynote Sisters at Northville Hills Golf Club.
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