It’s Fall which means it’s festival time again – this weekend Downtown Northville is up with the Northville Heritage Festival celebrating the rich history and small town charm of historic Northville. The Parade kicks off at 6:30pm on Friday and it’s the highlight of the Festival and well worth seeing (unless you are in it yourself!). Activities and events for all ages will be taking place across Northville until Sunday afternoon
It’s back! Football, kids back in school, and the smell of barbeque smoke will soon drift across downtown Plymouth as the annual Fall Festival is nearly here. September 10-12th, 2021 will be non-stop pancakes and barbecue chicken along with carnival rides for all ages, midway games, concerts, and attractions for everyone.
Downtown streets are closed off and for one weekend, downtown Plymouth is transformed into a local fall fair with all the pre-requisites. This is of one of our favorites festivals in Plymouth – good fun for the whole family and another great reason to live in the Plymouth area. For more information, go to: http://www.plymouthfallfestival.com/
With July data now available, this is a good opportunity to look back and analyze current real estate market trends. 2021 has been a real estate market unlike any other with stories on the news and from your neighbors about bidding wars and buyer frustration. Business has been frantic at times. This past Spring was especially busy with a staggering increase in buyer demand without a corresponding increase in the supply of available homes for sale. This imbalance has just begun to equalize itself due in part to the seasonality of real estate as we reach the end of the summer but also because buyers may be postponing purchasing or have given up altogether – at least for the time being.
Here are some charts to help illustrate what we are seeing in our local market: from the lack of activity during the stay at home order, to the gradual return of the market albeit delayed in 2020, to the dramatic increase in demand in early 2021 and finally, to a slight cooling but still hot market we have now. It’s also important to keep in mind any “year-over-year” comparisons to 2020 should be scrutinized carefully since you can’t really compare this year’s Spring market to last years to due to the effect of stay at home order we had.
Median Days on Market Last 5 Years
Days on Market remains at a low when you look at the past 5 years. The market has been good here for the last 11 years so good homes priced well had been selling quickly even before Covid. You can see the spike during last year’s stay at home order. You can also see the seasonal spike at the end of each year when real estate activity slows down.
Shows Per Listing Last 5 Years
This chart is perhaps the most telling of all. After peaking in March and April of this year, Showings per Listing have started to slow inline with seasonal norms but remain high relative to previous years. This shows just how competitive the seller’s market was and continues to be. There is usually a peak in the Spring months but nothing like what we saw in 2021 which was approximately 2 times the number of showings per listing. The number of showings per listing still remains higher than usual. Finally, note the dip during last 2020 stay at home order.
Number of New Listings Last 5 years
This chart illustrates that it’s not just increased demand that has driven the market – but also a lack of supply. New listings this year have been comparable or slightly less than previous years. People always need to sell for various reasons and recent prices have certainly enticed some to sell. But if you want sell high and need to buy at the same time, the benefits of selling just to time the market may be limited. Overall, there are homes for sale as there have always been – except there are more buyers competing for them.
Pending Sales Last 5 Years
Showing typical seasonal changes, Pending Sales were very strong in the Spring but are seeing the usually seasonal decline now while still higher than past years. If you look at 2020, there is a peak in the summer that was mostly driven by a backlog of sales caused by the stay at home order in the Spring of 2020. Sales that year were pushed back and concentrated later in the year.
Median Sale Price Last 5 year with 12 Month Rolling Average
This trend for Sales Price remains steadily upwards with 2021 seeing the trend accelerate. Overall, prices were already moving up steadily since back to 2009 but we did see 10-20% increases over just the past couple of years.
In summary, our local market remains strong given how desirable a place it is to live. New construction is adding to the stock of homes but there is less and less space for large developments. Material and labor costs and shortages will also limit how much stock can be added locally.
Here are 3 charts to help illustrate what we are seeing in the market this Spring relative to the last 10 years.
The number of new listings is lower but not significantly. Each week, there are new listings throughout our region and there are more coming. The ‘sellers market’ may be tempting more people to list. But we typically see selling activity increase in the Spring and into the Summer each year.
With such an increase in showing and buying activity with essentially the same or fewer new listings available, the inventory of homes for sale is at a 10 year low currently. We do expect more new listings to keep coming up as the weather improves and the school year ends. But the market will take some time to absorb all the buyers that are currently looking.
April data is now available and it reinforces what we’ve seen so far in 2021 during our daily real estate activities. There continues to be very strong buying demand without a balancing level of selling – creating quite an uneven market. Across Plymouth, Northville and Novi, homes are selling quickly – often with numerous showings and multiple offers. There are of course exceptions – generally more unique homes or highly priced homes can take a little longer.
Prices are up accordingly and will likely continue to increase as a large number of pending sales have yet to close. Many of these pending sales are at or above the listing price which will likely raise comparables and help mitigate appraisals holding back values in some cases.
If you are a buyer, it can be a challenging time but with the right advice, patience, and perserverence, you can and will succeed. If you are a seller, it’s definitely a great time to sell but consider the cost of where you are moving to as well.
These are tumultuous times so your home has never been more important.
The first set of charts below illustrate number of active listings and average price over 5 years for Plymouth, Northville and Novi individually and collectively. The second set shows average price over 10 years for the same areas. The message is simple and consistent: prices are increasing while the number of available homes remains limited.
The 2021 Plymouth Ice Festival is this weekend (February 12th through 14th) in Downtown Plymouth. It’s going to be different this year. There won’t be the displays around park but there will be numerous sculptures in front of downtown business. Plymouth sidewalks will be lined with over 65 ice carvings! Here are some photos from past years with an ice bonfire that lit up the night sky. For more information, go to www.plymouthicefestival.com.
The Ice Festival is one of several street festivals in Downtown Plymouth that take place throughout the year (usually). The area is very walkable with plenty of parks, shops, restaurants, and entertainment – along with plenty of parking. Plymouth also has beautiful residential tree-lined streets with lots of gorgeous historic homes making it one of the area’s prettiest and most walkable small towns.
2020 was a year like no other for many businesses including Real Estate. In March of last year, we were essentially put on hold during the Stay at Home order. There were still virtual showings, purchases, and closings but volume was down significantly. By May, the market was slowing reopening and people cautiously began listing and looking. Gradually, the market gained momentum as buying activity grew while supply remained limited. People aligned their real estate needs with working and learning from home. This usually meant larger homes with more amenities but also more outdoor space too. With travel, dining and entertainment expenses dramatically lower, people allocated budget to home purchase, renovation, and decoration. The result is a market with steadily increasing prices, growing demand and lack of choice. The charts and data below from last year and into this year, clearly illustrate many of these trends.
In terms of 2021, it’s impossible to predict what will happen but we do know that Plymouth and Northville remain very desirable places to call your home and your home has never been more important! And with the Superbowl behind us, people usually start to turn their attention to getting their home ready to sell or start preparing to buy their next home. We look forward to 2021!
Plymouth and Northville Months of Inventory– Last 5 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of Active Listings – Last 2 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of Pending Sales – Last 2 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of Sales – Last 2 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of New Listings – Last 2 Years by Month
The data above is based on Realcomp residential and condo sales for Plymouth and Northville, Cities and Townships,.
The 2020 Real Estate market will surely be one to remember. And with the end of summer nearly here and August data in, it’s a good time to look back and see what has happened so far.
The local real estate industry emerged gradually during the month of May from the stay at home order. In-person showings resumed (albeit with restrictions), listings began appearing steadily, and pending home sales increased.
The recovery accelerated into June as pent-up buyer demand, pent-up listing supply, and low interest rates drove increasing activity in the market. People were resuming their real estate goals after a pause. Competitive bidding situations for desirable homes in desirable locations weren’t uncommon and buyers had to act quickly when they found a house they liked. This higher level of activity has continued through July and August and into September. The annual seasonal market cycle seems to be approximately 2 months delayed so we expect this higher level of activity to last into the fall.
With fewer new listings and plenty of buying activity, median home prices have naturally increased slightly. The resiliency of our local real estate market reinforces what we all know, that Plymouth and Northville have been and remain very desirable places to live. This combined with changing buyer needs (working/learning from home, more people at home) have driven the want for larger homes, more yard space, and features and amenities like home offices, home study areas, pools, and finished basements.
Although we weren’t sure what would happen coming out of the stay at home order, we are pleased to see a strong recovery and look forward to continued strength in our local market.
Below are some charts to help illustrate the above comments. The data covers all Plymouth and Northville (incl. Oakland County Northville), homes and condos (incl. new construction), sales (not leases) and is broken out by month. The orange arrow shows the August year over year difference.
The Number Of Pending Home Sales has remained High All Summer:
The Number of Home Sales has Receded to More Normal Levels but remains higher year over year in August:
Median Sales Price has also Increased and has Continued to Increase Over the Summer:
The Number of New Listings Actually Decreased Year over Year:
With Fewer New Listings and More Pending Sales, the Number of Active Listings is Significantly Lower Year over Year:
The real estate industry in Plymouth/Northville did some catching up during the month of June as pending home sales increased 35% year over year. Pent-up buying AND pent-up listing drove the market as buyer and sellers returned to the market. While the number of closed sales is still lagging, July should reflect the peak of pending sales in June. Prices remain steady as demand continues to be strong and with more listing coming online.
This order has meant the end of in-person showings and open houses – essentially putting a hold on our usually busy Spring season. There are very few new listings and many are for yet-to-be-built homes as nearly all sellers and buyers choose to delay instead of risking the health of themselves and others. There are tools to show homes virtually including Zoom, FaceTime, Virtual Tours, etc. for someone that absolutely needs to sell or buy but these situations are extremely rare and generally not recommended for making real estate investment decisions.
For people who already had a purchase agreement in place, the process can proceed to closing as Lenders, Appraisers, Inspectors, and Title companies are still working albeit with the appropriate precautions.
Although the above mentioned Executive Order went into effect March 24th, the impact on the real estate market can now begin to be quantified:
Plymouth and Northville: March New Listings Down down approximately 30% Year over Year
New listing activity (except for yet-to-be-built homes) has slowed to a dry trickle as people stay at home. Even if agents and photographers were allowed to travel and work, new listing activity would be nearly as low in my estimation. People simply don’t want to endanger themselves or others unnecessarily. The April data when available should be even more telling.
Plymouth and Northville: March Active Listings Down down approximately 20% Year over Year
Active listings for March are also down year over year reinforcing the message above. The impact of COVID-19 mitigation actions has resulted in a frozen real estate market that will gradually thaw after we can flatten the curve and get past the worst of this crisis. Please stay safe everyone. Real estate will always be here.
Our family at BAKE Real Estate sends well wishes to those around the world who are affected directly or indirectly by the COVID-19 virus. For those of you following us from afar, we are in a “Stay Home/Stay Safe” mode here in Michigan, as in some other States and other countries. Therefore, we will be working exclusively from home until at least April 14th. Our six full time agents, including me, Patrick, Stephanie, Ann, Sorra and Christine, as well as our unofficial Canine Comfort Agents, Toddy and Biskit, are available by text, phone or video conference for real estate advice. Thank you to all of you who are out doing essential services to keep our citizens alive and well. We appreciate everyone working together on this to flatten the curve.