The 2023 Plymouth Ice Festival is on the weekend of February 3rd through 5th in Downtown Plymouth. Watch ice sculptors and statues across downtown Plymouth. Hopefully the ice bonfire will be back lighting up the night sky! For more information, go to www.plymouthicefestival.com.
The Ice Festival is one of several street festivals in Downtown Plymouth that take place throughout the year (usually). The area is very walkable with plenty of parks, shops, restaurants, and entertainment – along with plenty of parking. Plymouth also has beautiful residential tree-lined streets with lots of gorgeous historic homes making it one of the area’s prettiest and most walkable small towns.
With summer over, temperatures have been dropping while interest rates have been rising. Autumn color has started to break and now is an opportune time to reflect on how our real estate market has changed over the past few months relative to the last 5 years. There’s been plenty of real estate news in the media so let’s look in detail at our own local market which I have divided by school district even though the trends are similar across districts.
Prices Have Started to Fall Compared to the Frenzied Highs of Earlier This Year and Remain Stronger than Pre-COVIDLevels
The chart above illustrates how price per square foot has dropped significantly since the highs of earlier this year. The data is monthly so you can see the changes month to month vs. data that has been smoothed over six or twelve months – which tends to obscure trends that are changing rapidly. All is not lost however given the values are still significantly higher than pre-Covid. And if you were to smooth the data over 12 months, the chart would show a continued steady increase over the longer term.
The Number of Homes For Sale has Started to Recover
You may have noticed more homes for sale and some homes taking longer to sell. Both of these conditions are true. The above chart illustrates the number of homes for sale by month. The lows of earlier this year gave us the market frenzy then. We are now seeing the number available homes for sale rise gradually but still well below pre-COVID levels.
Showings Per Listing Have Dropped Significantly From Earlier This Year Returning to Pre-COVID Levels
Perhaps the most dramatic statistic that illustrates the changes in our market is the number of showings per listing. Earlier this year, we saw buyer demand spike sharply and prices rose accordingly. Then showing activity dropped significantly over the summer and we are now back to pre-COVID levels of showing activity. This has resulted in cooling prices and longer days on market for some homes. But a well presented, updated, and maintained home that is priced appropriately should still sell quickly and possibly with multiple offers.
With July data available and real estate market news constantly making headlines, it’s a good time to take a deeper dive into our local market. Overall we are seeing less buyer demand than earlier this year. But to put things in perspective, demand is still stronger than pre-COVID with showings per listing still very strong – just not the usually high levels we saw during Winter and early-Spring. As a result, the market is a little more balanced with homes having fewer showing but still selling quickly in most cases. Prices are holding steady and while inventory is increasing – it remains lower than pre-COVID levels.
The lower levels of buyer demand appear to be driven by a multitude of factors including higher interest rates, affordability, buyer fatigue, inflation, etc. For buyers looking to purchase, homes are coming on the market and the competition is a little less fierce.
For sellers, prices are steady and not running up as they were earlier this year. Interest rates can be an impediment for sellers as well as some will need to finance their next purchase. The main point for sellers is that the trend of ever-increasing pricing has paused.
Even with a slow down in demand, homes with preferred locations, that have been well maintained, and have desirable updates are still selling with multiple offers and often well over asking price.
The charts below help illustrate these trends from dropping buyer demand, supply that hasn’t fully recovered, to pricing at a plateau:
The number of homes for sale has increased from the the lows of early-Spring when buyers were out in force – but are still well below what is typical for this time of year.
The number of new listings has shown the normal seasonal rise and fall but hasn’t fully recovered to pre-COVID levels.
This is a chart that illustrates how much buyer demand is out there in the market. How many showings a home gets generally relates to how many offers are made and how high those offers are. This is perhaps the biggest change in our market this year with the number of showings per listing dropping significantly from the-all time peak of early Spring this year to more normal levels.
Days on Market remains very low as there are still not as many homes available for sale as pre-COVID. Even with reduced showings per listing from early this year, most homes are still selling quickly.
After a dramatic run up on pricing earlier this year, pricing has somewhat plateaued as buyer demand dropped. Prices are still at all-time highs and there is enough buyer demand and limited inventory to keep supporting pricing so far.
It’s been a very busy real estate market this past winter as buyers and sellers aren’t waiting around for Spring’s warmer weather. With fewer new homes available for sale and plenty of buyers in the market, competition for homes is as high as ever. But as home prices, interest rates, and inflation continue to rise, it’s unclear if our local real estate market will continue to see the buying frenzy of last year.
To illustrate the activity in the market, the following charts will reinforce what you’ve heard in the news and from your friends, family, and neighbors.
The first chart shows the number of homes for sale by School district over the last 5 years. The winter months are usually lower but the past 3 months have been significantly lower with far fewer homes for sale. Home for sale have been selling quickly so the historically small number of homes for sale is no surprise.
With so few listings available to see, the number of showings per listing shows how much demand there is for homes. The number of showings per listing is as high as it was last Spring so there are plenty of buyers out shopping. But with prices already high, there may be fewer buyers that can actually pay the higher prices and/or make as strong an offer.
Below you can see the number of new listings is down but not dramatically. There are fewer new listings during the winter months so we will see what the Spring has to bring. Each year, the spring months have seen a spike in new listings and we hope that happens again this year.
Finally, the value of homes over the past 5 years has been climbing – especially in 2021. We aren’t sure what 2022 will bring yet but the lack of homes available to purchase will probably continue.
So if you are planning to sell your home, now would be the time to do it as long as you have a plan for where you will move to. If you are planning to buy a home, we recommend getting yourself prepared financially first. Then we can help you see as many homes as possible so you can learn about the market. And then we can help you find the right home and prepare a strong offer.
Looking back at 2021, we saw our local real estate market rise dramatically during the Spring as already strong buyer demand continued to strengthen while the the supply of homes for sale remained limited. The rise in home prices was making headlines across the country as buyers competed to buy whatever homes became available. Bidding wars ensued with Buyers resorting to extreme tactics in order to win including all-cash offers, waived inspections, free occupancy, and more. Our local market was no exception as prices rose but prices have been rising steadily since 2009.
The charts below illustrate 10 years of data for Plymouth and Northville and help put the changes of 2021 in some perspective. See the comments below each chart:
It’s Fall which means it’s festival time again – this weekend Downtown Northville is up with the Northville Heritage Festival celebrating the rich history and small town charm of historic Northville. The Parade kicks off at 6:30pm on Friday and it’s the highlight of the Festival and well worth seeing (unless you are in it yourself!). Activities and events for all ages will be taking place across Northville until Sunday afternoon
It’s back! Football, kids back in school, and the smell of barbeque smoke will soon drift across downtown Plymouth as the annual Fall Festival is nearly here. September 10-12th, 2021 will be non-stop pancakes and barbecue chicken along with carnival rides for all ages, midway games, concerts, and attractions for everyone.
Downtown streets are closed off and for one weekend, downtown Plymouth is transformed into a local fall fair with all the pre-requisites. This is of one of our favorites festivals in Plymouth – good fun for the whole family and another great reason to live in the Plymouth area. For more information, go to: http://www.plymouthfallfestival.com/
With July data now available, this is a good opportunity to look back and analyze current real estate market trends. 2021 has been a real estate market unlike any other with stories on the news and from your neighbors about bidding wars and buyer frustration. Business has been frantic at times. This past Spring was especially busy with a staggering increase in buyer demand without a corresponding increase in the supply of available homes for sale. This imbalance has just begun to equalize itself due in part to the seasonality of real estate as we reach the end of the summer but also because buyers may be postponing purchasing or have given up altogether – at least for the time being.
Here are some charts to help illustrate what we are seeing in our local market: from the lack of activity during the stay at home order, to the gradual return of the market albeit delayed in 2020, to the dramatic increase in demand in early 2021 and finally, to a slight cooling but still hot market we have now. It’s also important to keep in mind any “year-over-year” comparisons to 2020 should be scrutinized carefully since you can’t really compare this year’s Spring market to last years to due to the effect of stay at home order we had.
Median Days on Market Last 5 Years
Days on Market remains at a low when you look at the past 5 years. The market has been good here for the last 11 years so good homes priced well had been selling quickly even before Covid. You can see the spike during last year’s stay at home order. You can also see the seasonal spike at the end of each year when real estate activity slows down.
Shows Per Listing Last 5 Years
This chart is perhaps the most telling of all. After peaking in March and April of this year, Showings per Listing have started to slow inline with seasonal norms but remain high relative to previous years. This shows just how competitive the seller’s market was and continues to be. There is usually a peak in the Spring months but nothing like what we saw in 2021 which was approximately 2 times the number of showings per listing. The number of showings per listing still remains higher than usual. Finally, note the dip during last 2020 stay at home order.
Number of New Listings Last 5 years
This chart illustrates that it’s not just increased demand that has driven the market – but also a lack of supply. New listings this year have been comparable or slightly less than previous years. People always need to sell for various reasons and recent prices have certainly enticed some to sell. But if you want sell high and need to buy at the same time, the benefits of selling just to time the market may be limited. Overall, there are homes for sale as there have always been – except there are more buyers competing for them.
Pending Sales Last 5 Years
Showing typical seasonal changes, Pending Sales were very strong in the Spring but are seeing the usually seasonal decline now while still higher than past years. If you look at 2020, there is a peak in the summer that was mostly driven by a backlog of sales caused by the stay at home order in the Spring of 2020. Sales that year were pushed back and concentrated later in the year.
Median Sale Price Last 5 year with 12 Month Rolling Average
This trend for Sales Price remains steadily upwards with 2021 seeing the trend accelerate. Overall, prices were already moving up steadily since back to 2009 but we did see 10-20% increases over just the past couple of years.
In summary, our local market remains strong given how desirable a place it is to live. New construction is adding to the stock of homes but there is less and less space for large developments. Material and labor costs and shortages will also limit how much stock can be added locally.
Here are 3 charts to help illustrate what we are seeing in the market this Spring relative to the last 10 years.
The number of new listings is lower but not significantly. Each week, there are new listings throughout our region and there are more coming. The ‘sellers market’ may be tempting more people to list. But we typically see selling activity increase in the Spring and into the Summer each year.
With such an increase in showing and buying activity with essentially the same or fewer new listings available, the inventory of homes for sale is at a 10 year low currently. We do expect more new listings to keep coming up as the weather improves and the school year ends. But the market will take some time to absorb all the buyers that are currently looking.
April data is now available and it reinforces what we’ve seen so far in 2021 during our daily real estate activities. There continues to be very strong buying demand without a balancing level of selling – creating quite an uneven market. Across Plymouth, Northville and Novi, homes are selling quickly – often with numerous showings and multiple offers. There are of course exceptions – generally more unique homes or highly priced homes can take a little longer.
Prices are up accordingly and will likely continue to increase as a large number of pending sales have yet to close. Many of these pending sales are at or above the listing price which will likely raise comparables and help mitigate appraisals holding back values in some cases.
If you are a buyer, it can be a challenging time but with the right advice, patience, and perserverence, you can and will succeed. If you are a seller, it’s definitely a great time to sell but consider the cost of where you are moving to as well.
These are tumultuous times so your home has never been more important.
The first set of charts below illustrate number of active listings and average price over 5 years for Plymouth, Northville and Novi individually and collectively. The second set shows average price over 10 years for the same areas. The message is simple and consistent: prices are increasing while the number of available homes remains limited.
2020 was a year like no other for many businesses including Real Estate. In March of last year, we were essentially put on hold during the Stay at Home order. There were still virtual showings, purchases, and closings but volume was down significantly. By May, the market was slowing reopening and people cautiously began listing and looking. Gradually, the market gained momentum as buying activity grew while supply remained limited. People aligned their real estate needs with working and learning from home. This usually meant larger homes with more amenities but also more outdoor space too. With travel, dining and entertainment expenses dramatically lower, people allocated budget to home purchase, renovation, and decoration. The result is a market with steadily increasing prices, growing demand and lack of choice. The charts and data below from last year and into this year, clearly illustrate many of these trends.
In terms of 2021, it’s impossible to predict what will happen but we do know that Plymouth and Northville remain very desirable places to call your home and your home has never been more important! And with the Superbowl behind us, people usually start to turn their attention to getting their home ready to sell or start preparing to buy their next home. We look forward to 2021!
Plymouth and Northville Months of Inventory– Last 5 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of Active Listings – Last 2 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of Pending Sales – Last 2 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of Sales – Last 2 Years by Month
Plymouth and Northville Number of New Listings – Last 2 Years by Month
The data above is based on Realcomp residential and condo sales for Plymouth and Northville, Cities and Townships,.