Our local real estate market remains very competitive for buyers who are out in force despite higher interest rates. There are just fewer homes available to buy so prices remain high although we aren’t seeing the increases of a year ago and homes can stay on the market for a little longer. Sellers are hesitant to take advantage of higher home values given they might have an existing 3% interest rate on their current mortgage. And even if they were willing and wanting to move, the competition when buying can be daunting.

Prices are off their Highs from Spring 2022 but Flat Year over Year and Still Strong

The chart above illustrates how price per square foot has dropped since the highs of Spring 2022. The data is monthly so you can see the changes month by month. Smoothed 12 month data which is typically shown would have hidden the spike in prices we saw during the Spring and early Summer last year. Values are still comparable to year over year levels and significantly higher than pre-Covid. Overall, prices remain strong for those planning to sell while buyers will have to compete for more desirable homes.

The Number of New Listings Remains Low

The number of New Listings continues to be low with no signs of change. With some sellers enjoying 3% mortgage rates, it’s a compelling reason not to sell. This combined with the competition to buy a home can make staying in your current home very attractive. The data above is smoothed over 12 months to remove the seasonality of new listings which swing dramatically every Spring and Fall unlike the first chart showing Price per Square Foot which isn’t affected by seasonality.

Showings Per Listing Have Dropped Significantly From the Peaks of 2022 but remain Strong

The number of showings per listing is one indicator of buyer demand. Last year, we saw buyer demand spike sharply and prices rose accordingly. Then showing activity dropped over the summer and we are now back to pre-COVID levels of showing activity. This combined with limited inventory means that a well presented, updated, and maintained home that is priced appropriately should still sell quickly and possibly with multiple offers.

Days on Market Remains Low But Starting to Increase

Day on Market has been low even before COVID but we are starting to see an increase over the past few months in the Plymouth-Canton school district (green line above) which has much more volume than either Northville or Novi. There are buyers out there but not every home sells right away with multiple offers. This is one small signal that we might be headed for a more balanced market in the future.

Percent of List Price Decreasing but still High

The Percent of List Price chart above (monthly data points) shows the spike of last last years Spring market frenzy. The trend is now lower but the Percent is still high and similar to pre-COVID levels. The market has cooled since last Spring but overall remains very strong.

In summary, the market is still a seller’s market with desirable, well maintained and updated homes with all the amenities garnering multiple offers while other homes might sell below asking and stay on market for longer. The market this year isn’t as frantic compared to this time last year so it is somewhat better for buyers except for the higher interest rates of course. With Spring just around the corner after a damaging winter, perhaps more new listings and a sense of balance are on the way.

It’s been a very busy real estate market this past winter as buyers and sellers aren’t waiting around for Spring’s warmer weather. With fewer new homes available for sale and plenty of buyers in the market, competition for homes is as high as ever. But as home prices, interest rates, and inflation continue to rise, it’s unclear if our local real estate market will continue to see the buying frenzy of last year.

To illustrate the activity in the market, the following charts will reinforce what you’ve heard in the news and from your friends, family, and neighbors.

The first chart shows the number of homes for sale by School district over the last 5 years. The winter months are usually lower but the past 3 months have been significantly lower with far fewer homes for sale. Home for sale have been selling quickly so the historically small number of homes for sale is no surprise.

With so few listings available to see, the number of showings per listing shows how much demand there is for homes. The number of showings per listing is as high as it was last Spring so there are plenty of buyers out shopping. But with prices already high, there may be fewer buyers that can actually pay the higher prices and/or make as strong an offer.

Below you can see the number of new listings is down but not dramatically. There are fewer new listings during the winter months so we will see what the Spring has to bring. Each year, the spring months have seen a spike in new listings and we hope that happens again this year.

Finally, the value of homes over the past 5 years has been climbing – especially in 2021. We aren’t sure what 2022 will bring yet but the lack of homes available to purchase will probably continue.

So if you are planning to sell your home, now would be the time to do it as long as you have a plan for where you will move to. If you are planning to buy a home, we recommend getting yourself prepared financially first. Then we can help you see as many homes as possible so you can learn about the market. And then we can help you find the right home and prepare a strong offer.

Looking back at 2021, we saw our local real estate market rise dramatically during the Spring as already strong buyer demand continued to strengthen while the the supply of homes for sale remained limited. The rise in home prices was making headlines across the country as buyers competed to buy whatever homes became available. Bidding wars ensued with Buyers resorting to extreme tactics in order to win including all-cash offers, waived inspections, free occupancy, and more. Our local market was no exception as prices rose but prices have been rising steadily since 2009.

The charts below illustrate 10 years of data for Plymouth and Northville and help put the changes of 2021 in some perspective. See the comments below each chart:

With July data now available, this is a good opportunity to look back and analyze current real estate market trends. 2021 has been a real estate market unlike any other with stories on the news and from your neighbors about bidding wars and buyer frustration. Business has been frantic at times. This past Spring was especially busy with a staggering increase in buyer demand without a corresponding increase in the supply of available homes for sale. This imbalance has just begun to equalize itself due in part to the seasonality of real estate as we reach the end of the summer but also because buyers may be postponing purchasing or have given up altogether – at least for the time being.

Here are some charts to help illustrate what we are seeing in our local market: from the lack of activity during the stay at home order, to the gradual return of the market albeit delayed in 2020, to the dramatic increase in demand in early 2021 and finally, to a slight cooling but still hot market we have now. It’s also important to keep in mind any “year-over-year” comparisons to 2020 should be scrutinized carefully since you can’t really compare this year’s Spring market to last years to due to the effect of stay at home order we had.

Median Days on Market Last 5 Years

Days on Market remains at a low when you look at the past 5 years. The market has been good here for the last 11 years so good homes priced well had been selling quickly even before Covid. You can see the spike during last year’s stay at home order. You can also see the seasonal spike at the end of each year when real estate activity slows down.

Shows Per Listing Last 5 Years

This chart is perhaps the most telling of all. After peaking in March and April of this year, Showings per Listing have started to slow inline with seasonal norms but remain high relative to previous years. This shows just how competitive the seller’s market was and continues to be. There is usually a peak in the Spring months but nothing like what we saw in 2021 which was approximately 2 times the number of showings per listing. The number of showings per listing still remains higher than usual. Finally, note the dip during last 2020 stay at home order.

Number of New Listings Last 5 years

This chart illustrates that it’s not just increased demand that has driven the market – but also a lack of supply. New listings this year have been comparable or slightly less than previous years. People always need to sell for various reasons and recent prices have certainly enticed some to sell. But if you want sell high and need to buy at the same time, the benefits of selling just to time the market may be limited. Overall, there are homes for sale as there have always been – except there are more buyers competing for them.

Pending Sales Last 5 Years

Showing typical seasonal changes, Pending Sales were very strong in the Spring but are seeing the usually seasonal decline now while still higher than past years. If you look at 2020, there is a peak in the summer that was mostly driven by a backlog of sales caused by the stay at home order in the Spring of 2020. Sales that year were pushed back and concentrated later in the year.

Median Sale Price Last 5 year with 12 Month Rolling Average

This trend for Sales Price remains steadily upwards with 2021 seeing the trend accelerate. Overall, prices were already moving up steadily since back to 2009 but we did see 10-20% increases over just the past couple of years.

In summary, our local market remains strong given how desirable a place it is to live. New construction is adding to the stock of homes but there is less and less space for large developments. Material and labor costs and shortages will also limit how much stock can be added locally.

2020 was a year like no other for many businesses including Real Estate. In March of last year, we were essentially put on hold during the Stay at Home order. There were still virtual showings, purchases, and closings but volume was down significantly. By May, the market was slowing reopening and people cautiously began listing and looking. Gradually, the market gained momentum as buying activity grew while supply remained limited. People aligned their real estate needs with working and learning from home. This usually meant larger homes with more amenities but also more outdoor space too. With travel, dining and entertainment expenses dramatically lower, people allocated budget to home purchase, renovation, and decoration. The result is a market with steadily increasing prices, growing demand and lack of choice. The charts and data below from last year and into this year, clearly illustrate many of these trends.

In terms of 2021, it’s impossible to predict what will happen but we do know that Plymouth and Northville remain very desirable places to call your home and your home has never been more important! And with the Superbowl behind us, people usually start to turn their attention to getting their home ready to sell or start preparing to buy their next home. We look forward to 2021!

Plymouth and Northville Months of Inventory – Last 5 Years by Month

Plymouth and Northville Number of Active Listings – Last 2 Years by Month

Plymouth and Northville Number of Pending Sales – Last 2 Years by Month

Plymouth and Northville Number of Sales – Last 2 Years by Month

Plymouth and Northville Number of New Listings – Last 2 Years by Month

The data above is based on Realcomp residential and condo sales for Plymouth and Northville, Cities and Townships,.